Where the market is wrong on Lillestrom v Fredrikstad
Lillestrom meet Fredrikstad in the Eliteserien regular season - 19 at Åråsen, Lillestrøm.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 50%. Attacking output favors Fredrikstad on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Lillestrom arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 v Fredrikstad, W 2-1 v Egnatia Rrogozhinë, D 0-0 @ Egnatia Rrogozhinë, D 1-1 @ KFUM Oslo.
Fredrikstad are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 14 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 @ Lillestrom, W 7-1 @ Eidsvold IF, W 1-0 v Kristiansund BK, W 1-0 @ Start.
Fredrikstad hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lillestrom 1-4 Fredrikstad.
The market prices LIL at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Fredrikstad: a 16.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
