Where the market is wrong on Charlotte Independence v Alta
Charlotte Independence meet Alta in the USL League One group stage at American Legion Memorial Stadium, undefined.
Charlotte Independence rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1684 to 1512. Recent form leans Charlotte Independence, 75% against 50%. Attacking output favors Charlotte Independence on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Charlotte Independence at 62%; double chance reads Charlotte Independence or draw 72%, Alta or draw 55%.
Charlotte Independence arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Alta, D 1-1 @ Forward Madison, W 3-1 v Sarasota Paradise, L 2-4 v Hartford Athletic.
Alta are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ Charlotte Independence, L 1-2 v Naples, L 0-1 @ NY Cosmos, W 3-0 v Fort Wayne.
The market prices CHA at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Alta: a 9.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
