Where the market is wrong on San Lorenzo v Gimnasia M.
San Lorenzo meet Gimnasia M. in the Liga Profesional Argentina clausura - 2 at Estadio Pedro Bidegain, Buenos Aires. The model makes San Lorenzo the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% SAN, 35% draw, 29% GIM.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 50%. Attacking output favors San Lorenzo on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 26%, over 2.5 goals around 18%. Draw no bet leans San Lorenzo at 55%; double chance reads San Lorenzo or draw 71%, Gimnasia M. or draw 64%.
San Lorenzo arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Lanus, D 1-1 v Deportivo Riestra, L 0-1 v Deportivo Recoleta, D 2-2 @ Santos.
Gimnasia M. are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Central Cordoba de Santiago, W 2-1 v Defensa Y Justicia, L 1-5 @ Independ. Rivadavia, W 1-0 v Lanus.
The market prices SAN at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Gimnasia M.: a 7.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
