Where the market is wrong on Derry City v Galway United
Derry City meet Galway United in the Premier Division regular season - 32 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 53%. Attacking output favors Derry City on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Derry City arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 13 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Waterford, W 1-0 @ Shelbourne, W 4-2 v Dundalk, D 3-3 v Shamrock Rovers.
Galway United are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Sligo Rovers, L 2-3 v Bohemians, W 2-1 @ Drogheda United, D 1-1 v Shelbourne.
The market prices DER at 52% implied. Our number sits apart on Galway United: a 12.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
