France W claimed third place in the UEFA Nations League with a 2-1 victory over Sweden W in Reims, a result that the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured at 45 per cent probability, projecting a 2-1 scoreline. The match was decided in the final minute of normal time, but the underlying numbers show that France W's greater efficiency in the penalty area was decisive. The Lemeister model had given the hosts a 45 per cent chance of winning in normal time, with a draw rated at 28 per cent and an away win at 27 per cent, and the eventual outcome matched the projected 2-1 exactly.
The opening goal arrived on the stroke of half-time. S. Karchaoui converted a penalty in the 45th minute to give France W the lead at the break. The spot-kick came after a period of pressure, though the data does not record the specific offence that caused it. Karchaoui's calm finish from 12 yards was the only shot on target France W managed in a first half that lacked clear chances from open play. The penalty underlined France W's ability to create danger from set-piece situations, even if their open-play threat was limited in the opening 45 minutes.
Sweden W equalised in the 67th minute through S. Blackstenius, who scored a normal goal assisted by H. Lundkvist. The goal rewarded a spell of away pressure, though Sweden W were unable to sustain that momentum. Blackstenius's strike was Sweden W's only shot on target in the match, highlighting their struggle to test the France W goalkeeper consistently from open play. Lundkvist's assist was a rare moment of creativity that unlocked the France W defence, but Sweden W could not build on that breakthrough.
France W reclaimed the lead in the 90th minute when G. Mbock scored a normal goal, with the assist credited to Karchaoui, who thus ended the match with a goal and an assist. The late winner came just as the contest appeared to be heading for extra time, and it reflected France W's persistence in the final third. Mbock's goal was the decisive moment, converting a chance that Sweden W could not create at the other end.
Standout performers were clear from the available data. Karchaoui was the most influential player, earning the highest rating for her penalty and assist. Her contribution was decisive in both the opening and closing stages, making her the difference between the two sides. Mbock also rated highly for her late winner, which secured the victory. For Sweden W, Blackstenius was the most effective attacker, taking her chance well, while Lundkvist's assist highlighted her creative contribution from midfield. The substitutes for both sides had limited impact, with neither side's changes altering the flow of the second half significantly.
Discipline was an issue in the closing stages. E. Junttila-Nelhage received a yellow card for Sweden W in the 91st minute, followed by P. Morroni for France W in the 94th minute, both minor offences that did not affect the outcome. The two yellow cards were the only cards in the match, reflecting a contest that was competitive but not ill-tempered.
The result means France W finish third in the UEFA Nations League, a position that reflects their status as one of the stronger sides in the competition. Sweden W, who had progressed through the group stage with some strong performances, will be left to rue a lack of cutting edge in the final third. The Lemeister model had anticipated a close contest, and the 2-1 scoreline was exactly its projection, though the late winner separated the sides when extra time had seemed a possibility. Sweden W's failure to create more than one shot on target ultimately cost them, while France W's ability to convert two of their chances proved decisive in a match where the margins were extremely fine.
