Juan Aurich claimed a 2-1 victory over Sporting Cristal in the Clausura - 14 fixture at Estadio Elías Aguirre, a result that the Lemeister model had narrowly favoured with a 35 per cent home win probability. The data shows a contest decided by fine margins in front of goal: while both sides recorded similar shot counts, Juan Aurich were more clinical in the final third and held their nerve after a second-half red card for the visitors. The model projected a 1-0 home win, so the actual scoreline exceeded that forecast by one goal for each side.
The scoring began in the 30th minute when R. Buitrago gave Juan Aurich the lead with a normal goal, unassisted. Sporting Cristal responded swiftly, levelling just two minutes later through I. Ávila, with H. Calcaterra credited with the assist. The deadlock held until the 73rd minute, when D. Peralta converted from R. Campodónico's pass to restore the home side's advantage and ultimately decide the match. These three goals came from a combined 27 total shots, but the distribution of quality was skewed in Juan Aurich's favour.
Possession was narrowly in Juan Aurich’s favour at 53 per cent, and they used it to generate 14 total shots, six of which were on target. Sporting Cristal had 13 shots but only four on goal, with nine off target and none blocked. The absence of blocked shots for the visitors is notable, suggesting that when they did miss, they missed decisively. Juan Aurich had nine efforts from inside the box against Sporting Cristal’s six, indicating they created higher-quality chances. The hosts also forced the visiting goalkeeper into four saves, while their own goalkeeper made three. The shot location data reinforces the narrative that Juan Aurich were more efficient in dangerous areas.
Passing accuracy was similar, with Juan Aurich completing 84 per cent of 414 passes and Sporting Cristal 82 per cent of 362. This suggests both teams were comfortable in possession, but the decisive difference came in discipline. Sporting Cristal received five yellow cards and one red, H. Calcaterra’s second booking in the 69th minute leaving them with ten men for the final quarter of the match. That dismissal, coming just four minutes before D. Peralta’s winner, was a turning point. Juan Aurich committed 20 fouls to the visitors’ 13 and collected two yellow cards, including one for R. Buitrago late on. The home side’s aggression in the tackle was high-risk but ultimately controlled.
The highest-rated player on the pitch was Sporting Cristal’s Christian Ortíz, who earned a 7.8 match rating. Teammate Irven Avila followed with 7.6, while the goalscorer R. Buitrago was the top performer for the home side at 7.5. Álvaro Medrano (7.4) and Rick Campodonico (7.3) also impressed for Juan Aurich, while Frank Ysique posted a 7.3 for the visitors. The distribution of ratings suggests that individual quality was spread evenly, but the collective outcome favoured the hosts. The man advantage for the final 21 minutes plus stoppage time clearly contributed to Juan Aurich’s ability to hold the lead.
For Juan Aurich, this win provides valuable momentum in the Clausura standings. Sporting Cristal, despite having the better individual rating from Ortíz and creating a comparable number of chances, will regret both their wastefulness in front of goal and the indiscipline that left them a man down at a crucial stage. The result tightens the mid-table picture, with Juan Aurich gaining ground on their rivals.
