Damac claimed a commanding 3-0 victory over Al-Fayha at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, a result that the underlying data suggests was thoroughly deserved. The home side's expected goals total of 1.44 dwarfed Al-Fayha's 0.24, a disparity that reflected the visitors' inability to create meaningful attacking opportunities. Damac managed 14 total shots to Al-Fayha's seven and put five on target against only one from the away side. The Lemeister model had entered the match favouring Al-Fayha with a 38 per cent win probability and a projected 1-0 away victory, making Damac's comfortable win a clear deviation from the pre-match projection.
The opening goal arrived in the 16th minute through Morlaye Sylla, assisted by Valentín Vada. Sylla, who finished with a match rating of 7.3, capitalised on early pressure that saw Damac dictate the tempo despite having only 45 per cent possession. Vada's assist marked the beginning of a creative masterclass from the midfielder, who would go on to provide a second assist and earn a 7.5 rating for his all-round contribution. The goal came from the run of play rather than a set piece, and it set the tone for a first half in which Damac created the better chances despite seeing less of the ball.
The second half began with Damac doubling their advantage. In the 53rd minute, Abdelkader Bedrane found the net, again with Vada providing the assist. Bedrane was in inspired form, and his contribution did not end there. In the 77th minute, he scored his second goal of the afternoon, this time assisted by Abdulrahman Al-Obaid. Bedrane's two goals earned him a perfect 10.0 match rating, the highest on the pitch and a clear reflection of his decisive impact in the final third. Al-Obaid, with a rating of 7.6, also stood out for his creative work from deeper areas, providing the assist for the third goal.
The statistical picture reinforces Damac's dominance in dangerous areas. They managed nine shots from inside the box compared to Al-Fayha's two, a five-to-one ratio that explains much of the expected goals gap. Damac's five shots from outside the box matched the visitors' total from all ranges, illustrating that Al-Fayha were forced into speculative efforts while the home side consistently penetrated central areas. Both sides recorded 83 per cent passing accuracy from similar pass volumes, but Damac were far more incisive with their 316 total passes, creating higher-quality chances. Al-Fayha's sole shot on target required a single save from Damac goalkeeper Kewin, who posted a 7.2 rating in a largely untroubled afternoon. The goalkeeper prevented an equivalent of 1.78 goals below the expected average for the league, though this figure applied equally to both sides in the data.
Discipline was broadly even, with one yellow card apiece. Mohammed Al Baqawi of Al-Fayha was booked in the 32nd minute for a foul that disrupted Damac's momentum, while Damac's Valentín Vada received his caution in the 70th minute, perhaps for an over-zealous challenge as the game became more stretched. The away side committed 12 fouls to Damac's nine, a minor difference that did little to stem the flow of home attacks. Both sides made five substitutions, but Al-Fayha were unable to alter the course of the match, with their defensive shape holding but their attacking play failing to generate the necessary quality.
The result moves Damac to a strong position in the Pro League standings, while Al-Fayha will need to reassess their attacking output after managing only 0.24 expected goals. With the Lemeister model's pre-match projection favouring the visitors, this is a significant points gain for Damac, who demonstrated clinical finishing and defensive solidity that the data shows was backed by a clear quality of chance creation. Al-Fayha's 55 per cent possession proved meaningless without penetration, and their inability to test Kewin beyond a single save underscores the challenge they face in converting territorial advantage into genuine scoring opportunities.
