Havelse delivered a commanding and efficient performance away from home to defeat SV Wehen 4-1, a result that went against the grain of the pre-match expectations. The Lemeister model had projected a home victory with a 44% probability, but the visitors were ruthless in attack and resolute in defence, converting their limited opportunities with remarkable precision. The final scoreline was built on clinical finishing, as Havelse scored four goals from just five total shots, four of which were on target.
The visitors struck early through C. Schepp, who finished a move started by N. Boujellab in the sixth minute. SV Wehen responded well and equalised in the 19th minute when F. Kaya found the net with an assist from N. Agrafiotis. At that stage, the home side had controlled much of the play, and their early equaliser looked to have settled them. However, the statistical narrative turned decisively after half-time. Despite holding 50% possession and attempting 11 shots to Havelse's five, SV Wehen generated only 0.77 expected goals compared to the visitors' 1.65. This discrepancy highlighted Havelse's superior shot selection, with four of their attempts coming from inside the box.
The second half belonged to Havelse. S. Belkahia restored the lead in the 51st minute, assisted by J. Duker, and the away side never looked back. With SV Wehen committing more players forward in search of another equaliser, Havelse exploited the spaces. M. Ilic added a third goal in the 80th minute after an assist from D. Duah, and J. Berger sealed the victory from the penalty spot in the 84th minute. The home side's growing frustration was evident in the disciplinary statistics, as they committed 17 fouls to Havelse's five and received three yellow cards to the visitors' one.
Passing accuracy was identical at 81% for both sides, with SV Wehen completing 358 of 443 passes and Havelse 343 of 421. The home side dominated the corner count six to one, but those set pieces failed to produce a goal. Havelse's goalkeeper faced three shots on target and made three saves, while SV Wehen's goalkeeper did not register a single save, illustrating how few genuine scoring opportunities the home side created despite their territorial advantage.
Semi Belkahia was the standout performer, earning a match rating of 7.7 after scoring one goal from midfield. Marko Ilic followed closely with a 7.6 rating for his goal and all-round contribution. Johann Berger, who also scored from the penalty spot, was among the top-rated players with a 7.3. For SV Wehen, Donny Bogičević, Nikolas Agrafiotis, and Ryan Johansson each received ratings of 7.3, but collectively the home side could not turn their possession and shot volume into meaningful chances.
The result has significant implications in the 3. Liga relegation battle. Havelse, who entered the match as underdogs according to the Lemeister model, banked three vital away points to strengthen their survival hopes. For SV Wehen, this was a damaging defeat at home, one that will raise concerns about their ability to convert dominance into points as the season enters its final stretch.
