FC Schalke 04 came from two goals down to win 3-2 at SC Paderborn 07, a result that the Lemeister model had rated as essentially a coin flip, with both sides given a 36 per cent chance of victory and a projected 2-1 home win. The decisive factor was the visitors' greater efficiency in front of goal, converting 3.1 of their 11 shots into goals while registering an expected goals figure of 2.28, well above Paderborn's 1.32 from 14 attempts. Schalke's 55 per cent possession and 82 per cent passing accuracy compared with Paderborn's 45 per cent and 74 per cent underlined their control of the contest.
Paderborn made the ideal start. Laurin Curda opened the scoring in the 13th minute, finishing after a pass from M. Baur. The home side continued to press and doubled their lead in the 26th minute when Stefano Marino scored, with no assist recorded. At that stage, Paderborn had created four shots, two of which were on target, and seemed in control. However, the match turned decisively before half-time. Schalke pulled one back in the 35th minute through Dejan Ljubicic, assisted by M. N'Diaye. Five minutes later, Adil Aouchiche equalised with an unassisted strike, leaving the sides level at 2-2 at the break. The data shows Schalke had grown into the contest; they finished the half with five shots to Paderborn's eight, but their expected goals had already reached 1.14 against the home side's 1.09, indicating the quality of the chances they were creating.
The second half was a tighter affair, but Schalke asserted greater control of possession, finishing the match with 55 per cent to Paderborn's 45, and completed 376 of 461 passes at an 82 per cent accuracy rate, compared to the home side's 272 of 366 at 74 per cent. This territorial dominance eventually told. Dejan Ljubicic scored his second goal of the match in the 83rd minute, an unassisted strike that proved to be the winner. Schalke had seven shots on target from 11 attempts, forcing three saves from the Paderborn goalkeeper, while Paderborn managed only four shots on target from 14 attempts. The home side's expected goals of 1.32 from 14 total shots, with 13 of those coming from inside the box, suggests they created decent opportunities but lacked the clinical edge of their opponents.
Dejan Ljubicic was the standout performer, earning a match rating of 8.2 for his two-goal contribution. Loris Karius and Adil Aouchiche each received 7.3 ratings for their roles in the victory. For Paderborn, Laurin Curda was rated 7.3, while Felix Götze and Stefano Marino both finished on 7.2. The solitary caution of the game was a late yellow card for Adil Aouchiche in the 91st minute. The goalkeeping performance on both sides was marginally below expected, with the goals-prevented metric showing -0.3 for each side, suggesting neither goalkeeper outperformed their expected save rate despite the respective shot volumes. Schalke's defensive work limited Paderborn's shots outside the box to just one, forcing the home side to play through a congested central area.
The result keeps Schalke's faint promotion hopes alive, moving them to within striking distance of the top three with three matches remaining. Paderborn, meanwhile, will rue a promising start that yielded no points, their two-goal lead evaporating through a disastrous seven-minute spell before half-time. The Lemeister model had projected a home win, but the visitors' clinical finishing and superior passing accuracy proved the difference on a day when the data told a clear story of Schalke's growing dominance after a slow start.
