VfL Wolfsburg ended their Bundesliga season with a commanding 3-1 victory over FC St. Pauli at the Millerntor-Stadion, a result that the pre-match data suggested was finely balanced. The Lemeister model had Wolfsburg as narrow favourites with a 36% win probability, and they delivered a performance that exceeded those projections, driven by a clinical attacking display and an overwhelming advantage in the shot count. The final scoreline reflected a match that Wolfsburg controlled for long periods, but one that was shaped by a pivotal own goal midway through the second half.
The visitors took the lead in the 37th minute when Konstantinos Koulierakis scored, assisted by Christian Eriksen. It was a goal that rewarded Wolfsburg's growing territorial dominance. By that point they had registered 56% possession, and their passing accuracy of 79% compared to St. Pauli's 71% set the foundation for sustained pressure. The first half saw both teams create chances, with St. Pauli's seven shots inside the box indicating they were not merely defending, but Wolfsburg's 2.02 expected goals at that stage already pointed to superior chance quality.
FC St. Pauli equalised in the 57th minute through Abdoulie Ceesay, who was set up by Connor Metcalfe. That goal briefly swung momentum back to the home side, who finished with 11 total shots and 1.48 expected goals overall. However, the narrative turned decisively in the 64th minute when Nikola Vasilj, the St. Pauli goalkeeper, scored an own goal to restore Wolfsburg's lead. It was a cruel blow for Vasilj, who otherwise had an outstanding match, making eight saves and earning a rating of 8.5, the highest of any player on the pitch. His goals prevented figure was -0.45, meaning he conceded roughly half a goal more than expected from the chances he faced, a statistic that underscores how the own goal distorted an otherwise excellent individual display.
Wolfsburg sealed the victory in the 80th minute when D. Pejcinovic found the net without an assist. By that stage, the visitors had completely taken control. The shot counts were emphatic: Wolfsburg finished with 19 total shots to St. Pauli's 11, 10 shots on target compared to just two, and an expected goals total of 3.5 against 1.48. Their dominance inside the area was especially stark, with 17 shots in the box to St. Pauli's seven, while they also won nine corners to the home side's eight. The passing data tells a similar story, with Wolfsburg completing 349 accurate passes from 444 attempts, building attacks with far greater consistency than a St. Pauli side that completed only 245 of 343 passes.
Among the outfield players, Konstantinos Koulierakis was the standout performer for Wolfsburg with a rating of 7.9, capping his goal with a solid defensive display that helped limit St. Pauli to only two shots on target. Jeanuël Belocian and Yannick Gerhardt both earned 7.3 ratings, reflecting the team's overall solidity in defence and midfield. For St. Pauli, Connor Metcalfe and Abdoulie Ceesay each contributed to the goal and received ratings of 7.5 and 7.3 respectively, but their efforts were undermined by a defence that conceded three goals from a high volume of opposition chances. The home side's two shots on target, compared to Wolfsburg's 10, illustrates the gulf in attacking efficiency.
The result means Wolfsburg concluded their campaign with three points on the road, finishing with a positive note after a season that had seen them fluctuate in form. For FC St. Pauli, the defeat at home was a frustrating end to the season, leaving them to reflect on a match where they were competitive in spells but ultimately outclassed by a Wolfsburg side that created far more clear-cut opportunities. The own goal from Vasilj, despite his otherwise excellent performance, was the pivotal moment that defined the contest, turning a 1-1 scoreline into a deficit St. Pauli could not recover from against a team that had generated 3.5 expected goals.
