Portugal v Spain

Portugal meet Spain in the UEFA Nations League final at Allianz Arena, München. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 24% POR, 30% draw, 46% SPA.

Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1758 to 1638. Recent form leans Spain, 87% against 70%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 65%; double chance reads Portugal or draw 54%, Spain or draw 76%.

Portugal arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Spain, W 2-1 v Croatia, D 0-0 @ Colombia, W 5-0 v Uzbekistan.

Spain are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 9 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Argentina, W 2-0 @ France, W 2-1 v Belgium, W 1-0 @ Portugal.

Spain hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 6 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Portugal 0-1 Spain.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.