Remo v Paysandu

Paysandu defeated Remo 1-0 to win the Paraense final, a result decided by Rossi's 58th-minute penalty and a marathon shootout that ended 8-7 after 12 kicks. The numbers illustrate a tense, defensive contest where neither side created enough to break the deadlock in open play. The Lemeister model had given Paysandu a 41 per cent chance of victory, making them slight pre-match favourites, and the outcome aligned with that projection, though the margin was far narrower than the modelled 2-1 away win.

Rossi's penalty in the 58th minute was the only goal of regulation and extra time. It came shortly after Marcelinho had been booked for Remo in the 52nd minute, the same minute a Paysandu player also received a yellow card. Reynaldo was cautioned for Remo in the 61st minute, and two more Paysandu players were booked in the second half, bringing the total to five yellow cards across the match. The pattern of discipline suggests a physical contest but one that never spilled into a red card, allowing both teams to keep 11 players on the pitch as the game wore on.

The penalty shootout was a test of nerve that stretched to the seventh round. Bryan Borges, Andre Lima, Leandro Vilela, Giovanni and Y. Quintana all converted for Paysandu, while Remo's Dodo, Ivan Alvarino, Pedro Rocha, Adailton, Marcelinho and Reynaldo each scored their kicks. The decisive moment came when a Remo player missed after the 12th kick, giving Paysandu the trophy. The shootout statistics reflect the evenness of the contest: both sides converted six penalties before the miss, and the margin of victory was the narrowest possible.

With no possession, shots, shots on target, expected goals, passing or corner data available from the structured information, the match narrative is built entirely around the two decisive moments: Rossi's penalty and the shootout. The absence of statistical detail reinforces the impression of a tightly contested final where defences dominated and chances were at a premium. Paysandu's ability to score from the spot under pressure, both in the 58th minute and throughout the shootout, proved the difference in a match that offered little else to separate the teams.

The result gives Paysandu the Paraense title, a significant achievement in the Belém derby, which draws intense local interest and carries deep rivalry. For Remo, the wait for silverware continues, with a second-half booking for Reynaldo and Marcelinho adding to the sense of frustration. The Lemeister model's pre-match read, which gave Paysandu a 41 per cent chance of winning in normal time, correctly identified the eventual winner, though the 2-1 predicted scoreline overestimated the goal count. In a final where the structured data offers only penalties and bookings, the shootout will be remembered as the defining feature of a match decided entirely from 12 yards.