Germany v Portugal

Germany meet Portugal in the UEFA Nations League semi-finals at Allianz Arena, München. The model makes Germany the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 37% GER, 29% draw, 35% POR.

The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 73% against 70%. Attacking output favors Germany on expected goals, 2.6 to 2.2 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 73%, over 2.5 goals around 75%. Draw no bet leans Germany at 51%; double chance reads Germany or draw 65%, Portugal or draw 63%.

Germany arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Paraguay, L 1-2 @ Ecuador, W 2-1 v Ivory Coast, W 7-1 v Curaçao.

Portugal are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Spain, W 2-1 v Croatia, D 0-0 @ Colombia, W 5-0 v Uzbekistan.

Germany hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: Germany 1-2 Portugal.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.