Amazonas and Novorizontino played out a goalless draw at the Estádio Municipal Carlos Zamith, a result that the Lemeister model had considered slightly more likely to favour the visitors, who entered the match as marginal favourites with a 40 per cent win probability. The scoreline reflects a contest in which Amazonas generated the clearer volume of chances but lacked the final touch, while Novorizontino's defence held firm under sustained pressure. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 away win for Novorizontino, but the draw, with a 31 per cent pre-match probability, was always a plausible outcome given the statistical balance.
The first half produced no goals, but the pattern was set early. Amazonas finished with 17 total shots, eight inside the box and nine from distance, yet only three found the target. Their expected goals total of 0.81 was nearly 60 per cent higher than Novorizontino's 0.51, underscoring the home side's failure to convert territorial dominance into a breakthrough. Novorizontino, by contrast, took 10 shots, five of which were on goal, and forced five saves from the Amazonas goalkeeper, suggesting they created the more dangerous chances when they did attack. The eight blocked shots against Amazonas indicate that Novorizontino's defenders repeatedly put their bodies on the line to keep the ball out, while the home side's three shots on target were comfortably dealt with by the opposing goalkeeper, who made three saves of his own.
Possession was in Amazonas's favour at 55 per cent, and they completed 329 passes at 69 per cent accuracy, compared with Novorizontino's 282 passes at 71 per cent. The home side also won the corner count 8-4 and committed fewer fouls, 17 to 20, although both sides were physical in midfield. Amazonas's three offsides suggested they tried to stretch the Novorizontino back line, but the visitors' discipline in maintaining their shape limited clear-cut opportunities. Novorizontino's passing accuracy was marginally better, and their ability to retain possession in key moments prevented Amazonas from building sustained pressure despite the home side's greater volume of play.
The three yellow cards were spread across both sides but did not materially alter the flow of the match. Jean Irmer was booked for Novorizontino in the 54th minute for a challenge that disrupted an Amazonas transition. Erick Varão received a yellow for Amazonas eight minutes later, and Willian Farias was cautioned for the visitors in the 73rd minute. Neither team had a player sent off, and the disciplined approach meant the game remained competitive without descending into chaos.
Renan was the highest-rated player on the pitch at 8.2, a reflection of his commanding performance in goal for Amazonas, making five saves to preserve the clean sheet. His distribution and positioning were key in nullifying Novorizontino's five shots on target, which came from a variety of angles and distances. César Martins also earned an 8.2 rating for Novorizontino, anchoring a back line that withstood 17 shots, including eight inside the box. His reading of the game and timely interventions were crucial in keeping the score level. Diego Torres was rated 7.6 for Amazonas, contributing to the home side's midfield control and linking play effectively. Mayk Silva earned 7.5 for Novorizontino, providing defensive solidity on the flank. Alexis Alvarino and Airton both received 7.3, with Alvarino's movement in the final third and Airton's work rate in the centre of the park ensuring neither side dominated the midfield battle entirely.
In the context of the Serie B regular season, this result leaves both teams with work to do. Amazonas missed an opportunity to close the gap on the promotion places, their inability to convert a high volume of shots into goals a recurring theme that will concern the coaching staff. Novorizontino, meanwhile, extended their unbeaten run on the road and demonstrated defensive resilience that could prove valuable in the final stretch of the campaign. With only five rounds remaining, tight contests such as this are likely to prove decisive in determining which teams secure promotion and which face relegation. Both sides will take heart from their defensive solidity, but the lack of cutting edge in the final third suggests improvements are needed if either is to achieve their season objectives.
