Bahia beat Porto BA 2-0 at the Arena Fonte Nova in the fourth round of the Baiano first phase, a result that aligned precisely with the Lemeister model's pre-match projection. The model had given Bahia a 44 per cent chance of victory, with the draw at 29 per cent and a Porto BA win at 27 per cent, and had predicted a 2-0 scoreline that proved accurate. The match was decided by two second-half goals, but the underlying data suggests a contest where Bahia's efficiency in front of goal and Porto BA's disciplinary struggles were decisive.
Everaldo opened the scoring in the 39th minute with a normal goal that arrived without a recorded assist. The strike came shortly after a period of sustained Porto BA pressure during which the visitors had three players booked in the space of four minutes. Gabriel Saulo, Luan Rodrigues and Adriano Napao all went into the referee's book between the 34th and 38th minutes, suggesting a physical edge from the visitors that may have unsettled their rhythm. Everton Ribeiro was cautioned for Bahia just before half-time, and Pedro Dias of Porto BA received a yellow two minutes into the second period. The five yellow cards in total, four of them to Porto BA players, indicate a game where the visitors struggled to contain Bahia's movement without resorting to fouls.
The second goal arrived in the 86th minute when Erick found the net, again without an assist. This gave Bahia breathing space after a second half in which they had increasingly controlled the tempo. The home side's five substitutions and Porto BA's five changes reflected a game that became disjointed in the closing stages, but the scoreboard told the story of a clear win. The timing of the second goal, coming late in the match, effectively ended any chance of a Porto BA comeback.
Possession statistics were not recorded, so the precise balance of territorial control cannot be quantified. However, the disciplinary record offers a clue: Porto BA's three yellow cards in four minutes during the first half suggest they were under sustained pressure from Bahia's attack. The home side, by contrast, received only one booking, an isolated caution for Everton Ribeiro just before the interval. This disparity in discipline hints at a game where Bahia were able to play on the front foot while Porto BA were forced into reactive fouls.
Player ratings were not available, so individual performances beyond the goalscorers and those cautioned cannot be assessed. Everaldo's early goal set the tone for Bahia's dominance, while Erick's late strike sealed the points. For Porto BA, the collective indiscipline of four yellow cards suggests a frustration that grew as the game slipped away. The absence of any recorded assists for either goal points to individual efforts rather than intricate build-up play, though the data does not permit further analysis.
The result maintains Bahia's position in the Baiano first phase, where every point is crucial in the race for knockout qualification. The Lemeister model's accurate projection of a 2-0 win underscores Bahia's status as favourites, but the narrow margin of victory and the three yellow cards for Porto BA in quick succession suggest the home side were made to work for their win. Porto BA, still seeking their first point from this fixture, will need to address their disciplinary record and find a way to convert competitive periods into goals. The game was not one-sided in statistical terms, but Bahia's efficiency in front of goal proved the difference.
