Luverdense v Nova Mutum EC: the model read
Luverdense meet Nova Mutum EC in the Matogrossense quarter-finals at Estádio Municipal Passo Das Emas, Lucas do Rio Verde, Mato Grosso. The model makes Luverdense the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% LUV, 32% draw, 26% NOV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Luverdense, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Nova Mutum EC on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 35%, over 2.5 goals around 36%. Draw no bet leans Luverdense at 63%; double chance reads Luverdense or draw 74%, Nova Mutum EC or draw 57%.
Luverdense arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 4 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v ABC, D 0-0 @ Guaporé, W 1-0 v Guaporé, D 1-1 v Ceilândia.
Nova Mutum EC are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ CEOV Operário, W 2-1 v Mixto, W 3-1 @ Operário MT, L 1-2 @ Cuiaba.
The recent head-to-head is even, 3 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Nova Mutum EC 0-0 Luverdense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
