Alaior v Collerense: the model read
Alaior meet Collerense in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 group 11 - 30 at Estadio Los Pinos, Menorca. The model makes Collerense the most likely outcome at 39%, with the full read 29% ALA, 32% draw, 39% COL.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Collerense, 38% against 28%. Attacking output favors Collerense on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 38%. Draw no bet leans Collerense at 57%; double chance reads Alaior or draw 61%, Collerense or draw 71%.
Alaior arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Portmany, L 1-2 @ Mallorca II, L 0-3 v Poblense, L 0-1 @ Constància.
Collerense are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Peña Deportiva, W 2-1 v Portmany, W 5-2 @ Rotlet Molinar, L 0-4 @ Constància.
Collerense hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Alaior 0-0 Collerense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
