Venezia came from behind to beat Cremonese 2-1 at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, a result that went against the grain of the match's underlying numbers. The Lemeister model had Venezia as clear favourites with a 61 per cent win probability, but the hosts had to show resilience after falling behind to a first-half Cremonese goal and then relying on efficiency in front of goal to overcome a side that dominated both possession and chance creation.
Cremonese struck first in the 24th minute through Franco Vázquez, who converted after an assist from Charles Pickel. The goal rewarded the visitors' early territorial control; by that stage they had already accumulated the majority of possession and were beginning to fashion openings. Vázquez, who finished with the highest match rating of any player at 7.6, was a persistent threat from midfield, and his strike provided a platform that Cremonese would hold until the interval.
Venezia equalised three minutes into the second half. Christian Gytkjær scored in the 48th minute, assisted by Joel Pohjanpalo, to bring the hosts level. The goal changed the complexion of a match that Cremonese had largely dictated. Despite facing a side that recorded 59 per cent possession and 467 total passes to Venezia's 319, the home side found a way to stay competitive. They were clinical with their opportunities, converting two of their four shots on target, while Cremonese managed only one goal from three efforts on goal.
The winning goal arrived in the 76th minute. Bjarki Steinn Bjarkason scored, assisted by Gianluca Busio, to complete the turnaround. It was a moment that rewarded Venezia's persistence despite being on the back foot statistically. Cremonese had 14 total shots to Venezia's eight, and 11 of those came from inside the box, but they were unable to add to Vázquez's early strike. The visiting side's wastefulness was underlined by an expected goals read that their total attempts would have suggested a more telling return.
The disciplinary record told part of the story. Cremonese collected three yellow cards, including one for Michele Castagnetti in the 11th minute and another for Vázquez himself in the 37th, while Venezia received two. The foul count was heavily lopsided: 24 fouls from Cremonese against 11 from the hosts, reflecting a physical approach that ultimately did not yield the reward their build-up play might have merited.
Among the standout performers, Venezia's Michael Svoboda, Tanner Tessmann, Gytkjær and Bjarkason all recorded ratings of 7.3, indicating a solid collective showing in key positions. Tessmann's influence in midfield was particularly important in helping Venezia absorb pressure and transition quickly. Michele Castagnetti, despite his yellow card, earned a 7.2 rating for Cremonese, underlining his role in the visitors' midfield dominance.
The result keeps Venezia firmly in the promotion picture with three rounds remaining. For Cremonese, it is a damaging defeat given their dominance on the ball and the quality of chances they created. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a comfortable home win proved accurate in outcome, but the numbers suggested a far more precarious path than the 61 per cent win probability had implied.
