India won the SAFF Championship final on penalties after a 1-1 draw, a result that the Lemeister model had considered the less likely outcome, having given India a 38 per cent chance of victory compared to Kuwait's 31 per cent. The match was decided by a marathon penalty shootout that featured 11 successful kicks, with India converting all five of their attempts and Kuwait missing once in a sequence that went to sudden death. The numbers from regulation and extra time, however, paint a picture of a contest that was far more evenly matched than the shootout margin suggests, with both sides creating limited clear chances and the game defined by discipline and composure rather than outright dominance.
Kuwait struck first in the 14th minute through Shabaib Al Khaldi, who finished after an assist from Abdullah Ammar. India responded in the 38th minute when L. Chhangte equalised from an S. Samad assist. Neither side could find a winner in the remaining 82 minutes of open play, and the match progressed to extra time and then penalties. The goals were the only ones from open play in the entire match, underscoring how tightly contested the tactical battle was. The Lemeister model had projected a 1-0 win for India, and the result ultimately required a shootout to separate the teams.
The disciplinary record tells a clear story of Kuwait's growing frustration as the match wore on. Kuwait collected eight yellow cards to India's three, with bookings spread across the lineup: R. Hany in the 41st minute, Ammar Abdullah and A. Al Dhefiri in first-half stoppage time, H. Al Qallaf on the hour, M. Daham in the 66th minute, A. Al Fahed in the 115th minute, and A. Naji in the 120th minute. India's cautions were shown to S. Jhingan in the 28th minute, A. Kuruniyan in the 65th minute, and R. Kumar in the 74th minute. Kuwait also made six substitutions to India's five, further evidence of their need to manage an increasingly stretched side. The yellow card count was the most lopsided statistical indicator of the match.
The penalty shootout unfolded in dramatic fashion, with all 11 kicks successful until sudden death. India's first scorer was S. Chhetri in the 121st minute, followed by S. Jhingan in the 123rd. Fawaz Al Otaibi scored for Kuwait in the 124th minute, and L. Chhangte netted his second of the shootout in the 125th. Ahmad Al Dhefiri and Abdul Aziz Naji kept Kuwait alive in the 127th and 128th minutes respectively. S. Bose scored for India in the 129th, and Shabaib Al Khaldi converted his second of the shootout in the 130th. M. Naorem scored the decisive penalty in the 131st minute, securing the title for India.
This result gives India the SAFF Championship title, adding to their previous successes in the competition and extending their regional dominance. For Kuwait, the defeat prolongs a period without a major trophy and leaves them to reflect on a final in which they matched their opponents for long periods but ultimately fell short from the spot. The Lemeister model's pre-match read had favoured India, and while the margin was tighter than projected, the outcome aligned with the data's initial assessment. India's ability to hold their nerve in the shootout proved the decisive factor, with every designated taker converting their kick and Kuwait's single miss proving fatal in a contest that offered little else to separate two well-matched sides.
