Truro City v Merthyr Town

Truro City meet Merthyr Town in the FA Cup 2nd round qualifying.

The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 50%. Attacking output favors Merthyr Town on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.

Truro City arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Merthyr Town, D 1-1 @ Merthyr Town, L 0-1 v Salisbury, D 1-1 v Walton & Hersham.

Merthyr Town are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Truro City, D 1-1 v Truro City, D 0-0 @ Scarborough Athletic, W 1-0 @ Chester.

Truro City hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Truro City 2-0 Merthyr Town.

The market prices TRU at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 7.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.