Where the market is wrong on Cook Islands v Tahiti
Cook Islands meet Tahiti in the Friendlies friendly international.
Tahiti rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1420. Recent form leans Tahiti, 60% against 33%. Attacking output favors Tahiti on expected goals, 1.9 to 0.8 per match.
Cook Islands arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 3 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Tahiti, L 1-3 v Tonga, W 1-0 v Tonga, L 0-1 @ Samoa.
Tahiti are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Cook Islands, L 0-3 @ New Caledonia, W 2-0 v Vanuatu, W 3-0 @ Samoa.
Tahiti hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cook Islands 1-3 Tahiti.
The market prices COO at 5% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 13.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
