St. Lucia v Bermuda: the model read
St. Lucia meet Bermuda in the CONCACAF Nations League league b - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 40% against 33%. Attacking output favors Bermuda on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
St. Lucia arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Barbados, L 1-6 @ Azerbaijan, L 1-3 @ St. Vincent / Grenadines, L 0-3 @ Cuba.
Bermuda are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 16 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Guadeloupe, L 0-3 @ Cape Verde Islands, L 0-2 @ Congo DR, D 2-2 @ Trinidad and Tobago.
The market prices ST. at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on St. Lucia: a 2.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
