Where the market is wrong on Walton & Hersham v Horsham
Walton & Hersham meet Horsham in the FA Cup 2nd round qualifying.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1489, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Horsham, 48% against 23%. Attacking output favors Horsham on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.0 per match.
Walton & Hersham arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 3 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Horsham, D 1-1 @ Truro City, L 0-2 v Ebbsfleet United, L 1-5 @ Tonbridge Angels.
Horsham are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Walton & Hersham, L 1-4 v Chesham United, D 1-1 @ Folkestone Invicta, D 1-1 v Dagenham & Redbridge.
Horsham hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Walton & Hersham 0-3 Horsham.
The market prices WAL at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
