Where the market is wrong on Juventud v Racing Montevideo
Juventud meet Racing Montevideo in the Copa Uruguay group stage - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 55%. Attacking output favors Juventud on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.9 per match.
Juventud arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Racing Montevideo, D 1-1 v Danubio, D 2-2 @ Club Nacional, L 0-3 @ Central Espanol.
Racing Montevideo are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Juventud, W 3-2 v Boston River, L 2-4 v Central Espanol, L 0-1 @ Cerro.
The market prices JUV at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Juventud: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
