Where the market is wrong on Toluca v Leon
Toluca meet Leon in the Leagues Cup semi-finals at BBVA Compass Stadium, Houston.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Leon, 70% against 57%. Attacking output favors Leon on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.8 per match.
Toluca arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Leon, W 4-0 v FC Juarez, W 2-0 v Austin, W 2-1 @ Club Queretaro.
Leon are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Toluca, D 1-1 @ Atlante FC, W 3-0 v Real Salt Lake, W 2-0 v Monterrey.
The market prices TOL at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on Leon: a 13.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
