Where the market is wrong on Ferencvarosi TC v Trabzonspor
Ferencvarosi TC meet Trabzonspor in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Groupama Aréna, Budapest.
The baseline ratings are close, 1661 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Ferencvarosi TC, 73% against 57%. Attacking output favors Ferencvarosi TC on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 37%. Draw no bet leans Ferencvarosi TC at 62%; double chance reads Ferencvarosi TC or draw 74%, Trabzonspor or draw 57%.
Ferencvarosi TC arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 8 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 4-0 v Trabzonspor, W 1-0 @ Trabzonspor, W 1-0 @ Zalaegerszegi TE, D 1-1 @ Gornik Zabrze.
Trabzonspor are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Başakşehir, L 0-1 v Ferencvarosi TC, D 1-1 @ Kasımpaşa, L 1-2 @ Göztepe.
Ferencvarosi TC hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Trabzonspor 0-1 Ferencvarosi TC.
The market prices FER at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on Ferencvarosi TC: a 11.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
