Fenerbahçe v Lyon: the model read
Fenerbahçe meet Lyon in the UEFA Champions League play-offs at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul.
The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fenerbahçe, 70% against 57%. Attacking output favors Fenerbahçe on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 67%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans Fenerbahçe at 61%; double chance reads Fenerbahçe or draw 72%, Lyon or draw 56%.
Fenerbahçe arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v Konyaspor, D 1-1 v Lyon, L 1-2 @ Gençlerbirliği S.K., W 1-0 @ Sturm Graz.
Lyon are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Toulouse, D 1-1 @ Fenerbahçe, W 3-0 v Sparta Praha, L 1-2 @ Sparta Praha.
Their last 2 meetings are tight — 2 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Fenerbahçe 1-1 Lyon.
The market prices FEN at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 1.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
