Where the market is wrong on San Giovanni v Tre Penne
San Giovanni meet Tre Penne in the Campionato regular season - 1.
Tre Penne rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1466. Recent form leans Tre Penne, 80% against 45%. Attacking output favors Tre Penne on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.0 per match.
San Giovanni arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 3 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Tre Penne, L 0-4 @ Tre Penne, L 0-2 v Domagnano, W 1-0 v San Marino Academy.
Tre Penne are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 @ San Giovanni, W 3-1 v Domagnano, L 0-1 v La Fiorita, D 1-1 @ La Fiorita.
Tre Penne hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: San Giovanni 2-3 Tre Penne.
The market prices SAN at 12% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 10.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
