Where the market is wrong on Berceo v San Marcial
Berceo meet San Marcial in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 group 16 - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 48%. Attacking output favors Berceo on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Berceo arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v San Marcial, L 1-2 @ Cenicero, W 7-0 v River Ebro, W 2-1 @ Yagüe.
San Marcial are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 3 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Berceo, D 1-1 v Comillas, D 0-0 @ Varea, W 1-0 v Vianés.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Berceo 2-1 San Marcial.
The market prices BER at 55% implied. Our number sits apart on San Marcial: a 8.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
