Where the market is wrong on Mutilvera v Avance Ezcabarte
Mutilvera meet Avance Ezcabarte in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 group 15 - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Avance Ezcabarte, 43% against 30%. Attacking output favors Avance Ezcabarte on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.8 per match.
Mutilvera arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 4 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Avance Ezcabarte, D 1-1 @ Valle Egüés, W 1-0 v Gazte Berriak, D 0-0 @ Huarte.
Avance Ezcabarte are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Mutilvera, D 1-1 v Subiza, D 1-1 @ Beti Onak, W 4-0 v Txantrea.
Mutilvera hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mutilvera 1-0 Avance Ezcabarte.
The market prices MUT at 54% implied. Our number sits apart on Avance Ezcabarte: a 25.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
