Where the market is wrong on Durham W v Southampton W
Durham W meet Southampton W in the Women's Championship regular season - 1 at Maiden Castle, Durham.
Southampton W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1535 to 1400. Recent form leans Southampton W, 53% against 33%. Attacking output favors Southampton W on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.1 per match.
Durham W arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Southampton W, W 1-0 @ Newcastle United W, W 2-1 v Sheffield United W, D 2-2 v Bristol City W.
Southampton W are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 15 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Durham W, W 3-0 @ Nottingham Forest W, D 2-2 v Charlton Athletic W, W 5-2 v Sheffield United W.
Durham W hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Durham W 1-3 Southampton W.
The market prices DUR at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Southampton W: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output