Where the market is wrong on Germinal de Rawson v San Martín Mendoza
Germinal de Rawson meet San Martín Mendoza in the Torneo Federal A losers stage - 5 at Estadio El Fortin, Rawson.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 48% against 55%. Attacking output favors San Martín Mendoza on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 16%, over 2.5 goals around 8%. Draw no bet leans San Martín Mendoza at 52%; double chance reads Germinal de Rawson or draw 68%, San Martín Mendoza or draw 70%.
Germinal de Rawson arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v San Martín Mendoza, L 0-1 @ Sol de Mayo, W 5-1 v Santamarina, D 1-1 @ Costa Brava.
San Martín Mendoza are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Germinal de Rawson, W 1-0 v Deportivo Rincon, W 2-1 v Sol de Mayo, W 1-0 @ Santamarina.
San Martín Mendoza hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Germinal de Rawson 0-0 San Martín Mendoza.
The market prices GER at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on San Martín Mendoza: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
