Where the market is wrong on Karmiotissa v Pafos
Karmiotissa meet Pafos in the 1. Division regular season - 1 at Ammochostos Stadium, Larnaca.
The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Karmiotissa, 70% against 55%. Attacking output favors Karmiotissa on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Karmiotissa arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Pafos, W 4-3 @ Omonia Aradippou, D 0-0 @ PAEEK, W 1-0 v Nea Salamis.
Pafos are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Karmiotissa, W 4-2 v Dinamo Tirana, D 1-1 @ Dinamo Tirana, D 3-3 v Red Bull Salzburg.
Pafos hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 1 across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Karmiotissa 0-3 Pafos.
The market prices KAR at 8% implied. Our number sits apart on Karmiotissa: a 33.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
