Where the market is wrong on Southport v Morecambe
Southport meet Morecambe in the National League - North national league north - 8 at Haig Avenue, Southport.
The baseline ratings are close, 1500 to 1408, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Southport, 48% against 35%. Attacking output favors Southport on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Southport arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 7 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Morecambe, L 0-2 @ Spalding United, L 0-1 v Hereford, L 1-5 @ Scarborough Athletic.
Morecambe are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Southport, W 4-0 v Buxton, W 1-0 @ Chester, W 2-1 v AFC Telford United.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Southport 2-1 Morecambe.
The market prices SOU at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on Southport: a 12.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
