Where the market is wrong on Carlisle v Forest Green
Carlisle meet Forest Green in the National League regular season - 8 at Brunton Park, Carlisle.
The baseline ratings are close, 1589 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 57%. Attacking output favors Forest Green on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.
Carlisle arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Forest Green, D 2-2 v Southend, L 1-2 @ Boreham Wood, W 4-2 v Scunthorpe.
Forest Green are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Carlisle, W 4-0 v Gateshead, W 1-0 @ AFC Hornchurch, L 1-2 v Altrincham.
The recent head-to-head is even, 4 apiece with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Carlisle 1-1 Forest Green.
The market prices CAR at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on Forest Green: a 4.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
