Where the market is wrong on De Treffers v Spakenburg
De Treffers meet Spakenburg in the Tweede Divisie regular season - 7 at Sportpark Zuid, Groesbeek.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans De Treffers, 78% against 57%. Attacking output favors De Treffers on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.6 per match.
De Treffers arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Spakenburg, W 2-1 @ Katwijk, D 1-1 v Koninklijke HFC, D 2-2 @ HHC.
Spakenburg are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-5 @ De Treffers, D 2-2 @ RKAV Volendam, D 1-1 v Sparta Rotterdam II, W 3-0 @ Almere City II.
The market prices DE at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
