Where the market is wrong on Maritimo v Benfica
Maritimo meet Benfica in the Primeira Liga regular season - 5.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1696, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Benfica, 78% against 60%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.9 to 1.2 per match.
Maritimo arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Arouca, D 2-2 v Academico Viseu, W 2-1 @ Famalicao, W 1-0 v Casa Pia.
Benfica are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 16 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Estoril, W 3-1 @ Aarhus, W 3-1 v Aarhus, W 7-0 @ Casa Pia.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 1 across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2023: Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
The market prices MAR at 9% implied. Our number sits apart on Maritimo: a 15.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
