Where the market is wrong on Concarneau v Thionville Lusitanos
Concarneau meet Thionville Lusitanos in the Ligue 3 regular season - 5 at Stade Guy Piriou, Concarneau.
Thionville Lusitanos rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1625 to 1466. Recent form leans Thionville Lusitanos, 68% against 48%. Attacking output favors Thionville Lusitanos on expected goals, 2.2 to 1.1 per match.
Concarneau arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Thionville Lusitanos, D 0-0 @ Valenciennes, W 2-0 v Villefranche, D 1-1 @ Quevilly.
Thionville Lusitanos are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 12 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Concarneau, D 1-1 v Gobelins, W 2-0 @ Bourg-en-bresse 01, W 4-3 v Caen.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Concarneau 2-2 Thionville Lusitanos.
The market prices CON at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Thionville Lusitanos: a 19.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
