Where the market is wrong on Rayo Vallecano v Racing Santander
Rayo Vallecano meet Racing Santander in the La Liga regular season - 4 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 57%. Attacking output favors Racing Santander on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Rayo Vallecano arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 2-5 @ Barcelona, D 1-1 v Alaves, L 1-2 @ Sevilla, L 0-3 @ Ipswich.
Racing Santander are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Elche, L 0-1 @ Getafe, D 2-2 v Villarreal, D 1-1 v Alaves.
Rayo Vallecano hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2020: Racing Santander 1-2 Rayo Vallecano.
The market prices RAY at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on Racing Santander: a 10.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
