Where the market is wrong on Swindon Town v Colchester
Swindon Town meet Colchester in the League Two regular season - 5 at County Ground, Swindon.
The baseline ratings are close, 1492 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 47% against 48%. Attacking output favors Swindon Town on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.5 per match.
Swindon Town arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 v Colchester, W 3-1 v Port Vale, L 0-3 @ Oldham, W 2-1 v Cheltenham.
Colchester are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 @ Swindon Town, L 0-2 @ Bristol Rovers, W 1-0 v Rochdale, W 2-1 v Oldham.
The market prices SWI at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Colchester: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
