Where the market is wrong on Kilmarnock v ST Mirren
Kilmarnock meet ST Mirren in the Premiership regular season - 5 at Rugby Park, Kilmarnock.
The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1569, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 63% against 57%. Attacking output favors Kilmarnock on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.7 per match.
Kilmarnock arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Dundee Utd, W 3-2 v Ayr Utd, L 1-5 v Celtic, L 3-4 @ ST Johnstone.
ST Mirren are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Motherwell, L 1-5 @ Rangers, W 1-0 v ST Johnstone, W 2-0 @ Falkirk.
Kilmarnock hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 1 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: ST Mirren 0-3 Kilmarnock.
The market prices KIL at 33% implied. Our number sits apart on Kilmarnock: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
