Where the market is wrong on Dundee v ST Johnstone
Dundee meet ST Johnstone in the Premiership regular season - 5 at Dens Park, Dundee.
ST Johnstone rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1535. Recent form leans ST Johnstone, 78% against 53%. Attacking output favors ST Johnstone on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.6 per match.
Dundee arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Hibernian, W 2-0 @ Dundee Utd, L 0-3 @ Aberdeen, W 2-0 v Aberdeen.
ST Johnstone are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Heart Of Midlothian, L 0-1 @ ST Mirren, W 4-3 v Kilmarnock, D 1-1 v East Fife.
Dundee hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2025: ST Johnstone 0-2 Dundee.
The market prices DUN at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on ST Johnstone: a 12.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
