Where the market is wrong on Hibernian v Kilmarnock
Hibernian meet Kilmarnock in the Premiership regular season - 3 at Easter Road, Edinburgh.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1604, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 63%. Attacking output favors Kilmarnock on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Hibernian arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Dundee, L 2-3 v Gent, D 0-0 @ Gent, W 1-0 v Partick.
Kilmarnock are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Dundee Utd, W 3-2 v Ayr Utd, L 1-5 v Celtic, L 3-4 @ ST Johnstone.
Hibernian hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 0 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hibernian 3-0 Kilmarnock.
The market prices HIB at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Kilmarnock: a 15.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
