Where the market is wrong on Shimizu S-pulse v Kashiwa Reysol
Shimizu S-pulse meet Kashiwa Reysol in the J1 League regular season - 4 at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka.
The baseline ratings are close, 1477 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kashiwa Reysol, 60% against 45%. Attacking output favors Kashiwa Reysol on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Shimizu S-pulse arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Kashiwa Reysol, W 2-1 v Osaka, L 0-1 @ Cerezo Osaka, L 0-1 v Yokohama F. Marinos.
Kashiwa Reysol are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Shimizu S-pulse, W 2-1 v Senshu University, W 4-2 v V-varen Nagasaki, W 3-1 @ Tokyo Verdy.
Kashiwa Reysol hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol.
The market prices SHI at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
