Fagiano Okayama v Tokyo Verdy

Fagiano Okayama meet Tokyo Verdy in the J1 League regular season - 3 at City Light Stadium, Okayama.

The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 45%. Attacking output favors Fagiano Okayama on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Fagiano Okayama at 56%; double chance reads Fagiano Okayama or draw 70%, Tokyo Verdy or draw 61%.

Fagiano Okayama arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Beluga Rosso Iwami, D 0-0 v Tokyo Verdy, W 1-0 v V-varen Nagasaki, L 1-2 @ Cerezo Osaka.

Tokyo Verdy are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Thespakusatsu Gunma, D 0-0 @ Fagiano Okayama, L 1-3 v Kashiwa Reysol, D 1-1 v Kawasaki Frontale.

Tokyo Verdy hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fagiano Okayama 0-0 Tokyo Verdy.

The market prices FAG at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Tokyo Verdy: a 6.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.