Maccabi Ahi Nazareth v Hapoel Afula

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth meet Hapoel Afula in the Liga Leumit regular season - 2.

The baseline ratings are close, 1608 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 57%. Attacking output favors Maccabi Ahi Nazareth on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 46%. Draw no bet leans Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 58%; double chance reads Maccabi Ahi Nazareth or draw 71%, Hapoel Afula or draw 59%.

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Hapoel Afula, L 0-2 @ Hapoel Ra'anana, W 3-0 @ Ironi Baka El Garbiya, W 4-2 v Hapoel Migdal HaEmek.

Hapoel Afula are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Maccabi Ahi Nazareth, W 2-0 v Ashdod, W 3-2 v Dobrudzha, W 2-0 v Kafr Qasim.

Hapoel Afula hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 2 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 0-1 Hapoel Afula.

The market prices MAC at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Maccabi Ahi Nazareth: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 65 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.