Where the market is wrong on Napredak v TSC Backa Topola
Napredak meet TSC Backa Topola in the Prva Liga regular season - 5.
TSC Backa Topola rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1541 to 1400. Recent form leans TSC Backa Topola, 55% against 33%. Attacking output favors TSC Backa Topola on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans TSC Backa Topola at 67%; double chance reads Napredak or draw 52%, TSC Backa Topola or draw 76%.
Napredak arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v TSC Backa Topola, D 1-1 @ Teleoptik, W 2-1 v Metalac GM, W 1-0 @ OFK Bor 1919.
TSC Backa Topola are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Napredak, D 2-2 v FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, W 3-2 @ Jedinstvo Ub, D 1-1 v Javor.
TSC Backa Topola hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Napredak 1-2 TSC Backa Topola.
The market prices NAP at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on TSC Backa Topola: a 8.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 75 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
