Where the market is wrong on Lyon v Auxerre
Lyon meet Auxerre in the Ligue 1 regular season - 3 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1509, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 53%. Attacking output favors Lyon on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Lyon arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Le Havre, L 1-2 v Fenerbahçe, W 2-0 @ Toulouse, D 1-1 @ Fenerbahçe.
Auxerre are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Angers, L 2-5 @ Lens, W 1-0 @ Werder Bremen, D 1-1 v Estac Troyes.
Lyon hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Lyon 3-2 Auxerre.
The market prices LYO at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on Auxerre: a 18.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
