Where the market is wrong on PEC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen
PEC Zwolle meet NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie regular season - 4 at Mac3Park Stadion, Zwolle.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans NEC Nijmegen, 43% against 33%. Attacking output favors NEC Nijmegen on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.1 per match.
PEC Zwolle arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v NEC Nijmegen, W 2-0 @ Heerenveen, L 1-3 @ Twente, L 0-2 v Ajax.
NEC Nijmegen are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ PEC Zwolle, L 0-3 @ Bodo/Glimt, L 1-3 v Bodo/Glimt, W 4-1 @ Willem II.
NEC Nijmegen hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 0 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
The market prices PEC at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
