Where the market is wrong on CF Pachuca v Guadalajara Chivas
CF Pachuca meet Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX apertura - 6 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 53%. Attacking output favors CF Pachuca on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
CF Pachuca arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Guadalajara Chivas, D 1-1 @ Atletico San Luis, L 2-3 v Puebla, W 1-0 @ Charlotte.
Guadalajara Chivas are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ CF Pachuca, W 5-2 v Club Tijuana, W 1-0 @ Santos Laguna, W 2-1 @ Seattle Sounders.
Guadalajara Chivas hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: CF Pachuca 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
The market prices CF at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
